Лебединое озеро

As the Russian invasion of Ukraine grinds into its sixth week, experts and Western intelligence agencies are continuing to sketch out potential endgames for the conflict.
It’s possible that a ceasefire could emerge, and the Russian military, facing surprisingly fierce Ukrainian resistance, would simply back off its initial war aim of regime change in Kyiv and control over the country’s future. But recent history suggests the solution won’t be that simple.
Russia could also exploit its far larger military might and continue its advance into Ukraine, particularly in the east, where it now appears to be focused. Although Russian President Vladimir Putin may continue to face heavy losses, the sheer size of his army sets up the possibility of the Kremlin occupying swaths of Ukrainian territory and facing a protracted and bloody insurgence.


“Insurgency is different from regular warfare in that it's usually troops that are not in a formalized military structure,” Emily Harding, the deputy director and senior fellow of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, explained to Yahoo News.
An insurgence is most likely to happen, Harding believes, if Russian soldiers occupy a significant number of Ukrainian territories in the coming months or even years. But if the Ukrainian population maintains its defiance, supporting a militia effort and harassing Russian troops, Putin may not have enough forces to fully establish control there.
But in order to be successful, insurgent militias require both financial and military assistance — likely coming from both the local population and foreign governments opposed to the Russian invasion. (Similar, in fact, to how Moscow has supported an insurgence in Ukraine’s eastern region, furnishing the local armies with weapons and other support.) “In fact, that's critical to the success of most insurgencies that you have foreign assistance pouring in, both militarily and with people and money,” Harding said.